A paper by the Center for American Progress, a progressive think tank, cites demographic voting and population trends to conclude that voting by Democratic groups is increasing, while voting by conservative groups is decreasing, in state after state. This, coupled with the growth of ethnic minority groups and the trend of young people toward more liberal politics, forecasts hard times for Republicans. In fact, the study says, the GOP will be forced to marginalize its extremists and seek the moderate center to remain competitive.

Read an introduction, with links to a summary and the entire report.

Commentary on the report by Charles M. Blow in The New York Times, June 26, 2010.